Ukraine: Current Issues and U.S. Policy

November 2016 marked the third anniversary of the popular uprising that erupted in Kyiv's Maidan Square in late 2013 over the government's decision to reject closer relations with the European Union (EU). February 2017 will mark the third anniversary of the collapse of the Kremlin-favored government of Viktor Yanukovych. The regime's demise was brought about by bitter protests and by civil society's reaction to a brutal government response to the Maidan protestors. In the aftermath of the turmoil of the Maidan and the collapse of the government, Ukraine saw the emergence of a pro-Western government promising reform and generally anxious to lessen Moscow's influence, as well as an energized civil society committed to pressing for the implementation of serious reform measures and determined to draw closer to the EU and the United States.

The current government of President Petro Poroshenko and Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, appears, to many, to be moving slowly and cautiously in a positive direction, implementing much-needed government reform, addressing endemic corruption, and achieving economic progress. For some, the government has already achieved what they believe has been the most substantial reform wave seen in Ukraine in the last 25 years.

Under Groysman, the adoption of a public asset and income declaration law required of all government officials has been hailed as a significant anticorruption achievement. Significant reforms also have taken place in the federal prosecutor's office, energy and banking sectors, and health care system. Economic progress has begun to increase slowly as the government has reduced its budget and accounts deficits. Exports have begun to increase. Shortcomings in the rule of law that have plagued the country are also reportedly being overcome. The judicial system, however, remains a problem, and attempts to promote privatization have not been successful.

At the same time, the government's cautious approach has failed to impress some sectors of a frustrated public that continues to pressure the government for more progress. The influence of a small group of old-time oligarchs and politicians, who initially refused to relinquish power or support reform, remains a distraction, and the opposition continues to criticize the government. And although the international community appears to be more encouraged by government action, many concede more work needs to be done.

Ukraine's problems have not been solely political and economic. Russia responded to the change of government in Kyiv by seizing Ukraine's Crimea region and annexing it March 2014. In April 2014, armed pro-Russian separatists supported by Moscow seized parts of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. A 12-point agreement to end the conflict, known as Minsk-2, was reached by the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France, and Germany and took effect in February 2015. Since then, however, the separatists and their patrons in the Kremlin have shown little interest in fulfilling their responsibilities to implement Minsk-2, whereas Europe and the United States have continued to press Kyiv to move forward with implementing the agreement.

The United States and the EU strongly condemned Russia's incursions into Ukraine and have imposed sanctions on Russian individuals and key Russian economic and business sectors. The United States has committed close to $1.5 billion in foreign assistance to Ukraine to advance reforms and strengthen democratic institutions, including some $135 million in humanitarian assistance provided through the United Nations and $3 billion in loan guarantees.

The U.S. Congress has been a strong advocate for assisting Ukraine. In 2014, the Ukraine Freedom Support Act ( H.R. 5859 ) was adopted, which, among other provisions, authorized increased military and economic assistance for Ukraine. In the Fiscal Year 2017 Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), Congress supported an expansion and enhancement of security assistance for Ukraine that was initiated by the U.S. government in 2015. In September 2016, the House adopted the STAND for Ukraine Act ( H.R. 5094 , Engel), which, among other provisions, clarified the position of the United States on Russia's illegal occupation of Crimea. A Senate version of the legislation was introduced in the waning days of the 114 th Congress, but the legislation was not enacted.

Nevertheless, some observers believe there is a growing Ukraine fatigue in Europe and a euro-skepticism taking hold in Ukraine, fueled by those who oppose the government and its reform effort and by those who have become disenchanted by Europe's lack of actions to support the pro-Europe movement in Ukraine. Concerns about the new U.S. Administration's commitment to Ukraine also are raising the level of anxiety among many in Kyiv.

Source s : Map created by CRS. Map information generated by Hannah Fischer using data from the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency (2016), Department of State (2015), Esri (2014), and DeLorme (2014).

Ukraine was the center of the first eastern Slavic state, Kyivan Rus, which during the 10 th and 11 th centuries was one of the largest and most powerful states in Europe. Eventually, Kyivan Rus was incorporated into the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and into the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. During the latter part of the 18 th century, most Ukrainian territory was absorbed by the Russian Empire. Following the collapse of czarist Russia in 1917, Ukraine achieved a short-lived period of independence (1917-1920) but was reconquered and incorporated into the former Soviet Union. 1

Today, Ukraine—comparable in size and population to France—is a large, important, European state. Occupying the sensitive position between Russia and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania, Ukraine has played a prominent role in the geopolitical competition between the West and Russia. Ethnic Russians make up approximately 17% of Ukraine's population and are concentrated in the southern and eastern parts of the country. They form a majority in the Crimea, where they make up close to 60% of the population. In the Crimean city of Sevastopol, the home base of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, approximately 72% of the population is Russian. In addition, ethnic Ukrainians in the east and south also tend to be Russian-speaking, have generally been suspicious of Ukrainian nationalism, and have supported close ties with Russia.

Many Russian politicians, as well as ordinary citizens, have never been fully reconciled to Ukraine's independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 and feel that the country belongs in Russia's political and economic orbit. This historical sense of "ownership" was witnessed in the strong Russian support for the 2014 annexation of Crimea. It has been reported that in 2008, Russian President Putin told U.S. President George W. Bush that Ukraine was not a state and that while the western part of the country may belong to Eastern Europe, eastern Ukraine was Russia's. 2 On the other hand, the U.S. and European view (particularly in Central and Eastern Europe) is that a strong, independent Ukraine is an important part of building a Europe that is whole, free, and at peace.

Since achieving its independence in 1991, Ukraine's political scene has been largely dominated by a powerful political elite and politically well-connected businessmen, or "oligarchs," who regularly manipulated the government for their own security and profit. Ukraine's recent political unrest involved, for the most part, former President Viktor Yanukovych. In the early 2000s, Yanukovych served as prime minister. He was elected president in 2004 through questionable elections and was ousted from power that year by the "Orange Revolution." He was reelected president in February 2010. Yanukovych drew his main political support from oligarchs from the Donets (Donbas) region of eastern Ukraine, which was also fairly pro-Russian. Yanukovych's government was criticized for high levels of corruption, in part among Yanukovych's own family and close associates. U.S. and European Union (EU) officials expressed strong concern over the government's human rights record, especially the targeting of opposition leaders for selective prosecution and Yanukovych's flirtations with Moscow.

Many observers had believed that, despite growing dissatisfaction with the Yanukovych government beginning in 2013, there was little likelihood of public unrest in Ukraine, given the failure of the government that emerged after the 2004/2005 pro-democracy "Orange" revolution as well as widespread disillusionment with the political class as a whole. However, in November 2013, the Yanukovych government, under pressure from Moscow, made a last-minute decision to reject an Association Agreement (AA), including a free trade pact, with the EU that would have aligned Ukraine more toward Europe, at least in the areas of economics and trade. Yanukovych appeared to bend to pressure from the Kremlin, which opposed the AA, and instead opted for closer economic links to Moscow. The decision sparked antigovernment demonstrations in Kyiv's central Maidan Nezalezhnosti , or Independence Square. Smaller protests occurred in other Ukrainian cities, mainly in opposition strongholds in western and central Ukraine. Observers noted that when government security forces took forceful actions against the demonstrators, public reaction shifted from just protesting against Yanukovych's failure to sign the association agreement, to the government's lack of respect for the basic human dignity of Ukraine's citizens.

In February 2014, when the Yanukovych government embarked on its most violent crackdown against the Maidan protestors, resulting in more than 100 persons being killed, the regime sealed its own demise. The death toll likely caused the support for the crackdown in the government-controlled Ukrainian Rada (parliament) to evaporate and, ultimately, the regime to collapse. On February 20, 2014, the Rada approved a resolution calling for the withdrawal of the Interior Ministry and military forces from the streets of Kyiv to their bases. As protestors began occupying government buildings, and as the situation in the streets became more chaotic, Yanukovych and many of his supporters in the government and parliament fled, including to Russia.

After Yanukovych and his supporters abandoned Ukraine, the Rada, now composed mainly of former opposition deputies, rapidly passed sweeping measures to address the unrest and reform the government. The parliament formally deposed Yanukovych as president on February 22 for abandoning his duties. The Rada restored many democratic provisions of the 2004 Ukrainian constitution, eliminating changes made by Yanukovych to strengthen the presidency, and ordered new presidential elections to be held on May 25, 2014. On February 27, 2014, the Ukrainian parliament approved a new, interim government, headed by Arseniy Yatsenyuk, a former prime minister. Despite the rapid changes and formation of a new government, many Maidan protestors viewed the new government skeptically, suspecting that it was nearly as opportunistic and corrupt as the Yanukovych regime.

The collapse of the Yanukovych government did not sit well in Moscow. The Kremlin reacted with great hostility toward the events in Kyiv, referring to them as an illegal coup. The emergence of the new, pro-Western leadership in Ukraine also unsettled Moscow because of the presence of the large Russian Black Sea fleet stationed in Crimea. In February 2014, heavily armed Russian-speaking forces, aided by Russian troops, began seizing airports and other key installations throughout the Crimean peninsula. At the time, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that many of the troops that poured into Crimea were not Russian Federation military forces but only local Crimean self-defense forces or volunteers from Russia. Following the military operation, Moscow announced it was annexing Crimea and making it a permanent part of Russia. On March 16, 2014, Crimean authorities held a referendum in support of the annexation by Russia. The referendum was allegedly approved by 96% of those voting, with a turnout of 83%. Ukraine, the United States, the EU, and others denounced the referendum as illegal and claimed it was not held in a free or fair manner. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a "treaty" with Crimean leaders on March 18, 2014, formally incorporating Crimea into Russia. At the same time, pro-Russia, armed rebels, aided by Moscow, began to seize government facilities and territory in the eastern regions of the country referred to as the Donbas. These actions quickly evolved into a full-scale conflict requiring Ukraine to commit its military forces against the separatists.